The Influence of Labour Work Mode Shifts on City-Wide Residential Migration

Abstract While substantial population movements were motivated by COVID health safety concerns, policies and practices following COVID-19 have facilitated transformative flexibility in work and transport, changing the location of economic activities and travel patterns. This study investigates urban residential movements in response to this major urban practice change, using spatial-based multi-year internal migration data in Melbourne. Going beyond previous research, our analysis undertakes a detailed breakdown of socio-economic categories that are more exposed to work practice changes. The purpose is to better understand the effect of new work and transport practices induced by COVID-19 on urban residential mobility, in contrast to the temporary health safety driven population moves. By tracking changing mobility patterns of the targeted occupations benchmarked with the mobility change of all movers, our analysis demonstrates that city-wide workplace re-arrangments have a general feedback effect on urban utility and settlement patterns. When flexible working and commuting become established practices, workers are likely to re-adjust location utility in response to living standards and housing costs. However, their residential change did not target the high-growth and low-density urban zones but focused more on the areas to balance housing affordability and location accessibility/liveability. We demonstrate that the research outputs can assist in appraising the long-term impacts of policy and practice change and population dynamics in urban areas, including the extension of flexible working and commuting arrangements.