Agricultural trade and geopolitics: a comparative analysis of China-U.S. and China-Canada trade relations

Purpose In response to trade disputes with the USA and Canada, while the United States and Canada have weaponized tariffs as a trade policy tool, China has weaponized food as a foreign policy tool by targeting agricultural imports from these countries. This paper highlights interdependencies in food security, market access, and diplomacy, offering a comparison between Sino-US and Sino-Canada relations in contemporary times. Design/methodology/approach This paper draws on trade data as well as academic literature, government reports, and policy documents to contextualize historic trade dynamics and trace the buildup to recent disputes. Using a comparative framework, we analyze how Sino-US and Sino-Canada relations have shaped, and continue to shape, agri-food trade flows. Findings Our analysis reveals structural vulnerabilities in both US and Canadian agricultural exports to China, emphasizing how reliance on a narrow set of commodities leaves both countries exposed to economic losses resulting from China’s trade policies. Simultaneously, China’s dependence on a limited number of suppliers for large volumes of key commodities makes it vulnerable to price volatility and supply uncertainty. Research limitations/implications As China’s global economic footprint grows, so does its capacity and willingness to shape trade relationships in ways that align with its broader geopolitical and domestic policy objectives. This paper has analyzed the trade dynamics between China and two of its most important agri-food partners—the United States and Canada—through historical, comparative, and policy lenses and draws insights that may inform and shape future policy directions for respective countries with significant implications for international trade and the world economy. Social implications The evolution of China’s agricultural trade relations with the United States and Canada underscores a profound shift in the global political economy—one in which interdependence can no longer be taken as a guarantee of stability, and where strategic considerations increasingly influence the trade flows. The comparative analysis of China-US and China-Canada agricultural trade relations highlights the complex interplay between economic interdependence, geopolitical tensions, and strategic vulnerabilities and carries significant social, economic, and political implications. Originality/value Building on prior research that has identified sensitivities in Sino-US and Sino-Canada agricultural trade, this paper offers a novel perspective in a comparative analysis of how the Sino-US and Sino-Canada agricultural trades evolve over time and how China manages its agricultural trade with both countries, especially under the current Trump tariff shocks.