Changing Climate–Productivity Relationships: Nonlinear Trends and State-Dependent Sensitivities in Eurasian Grasslands

Grassland productivity faces heightened uncertainty under nonlinear climatic forcing. This study characterizes the spatial heterogeneity of nonlinear variations and nonstationary climate sensitivities across the Eurasian Steppe Region (EASR) to provide a scientific basis for its adaptive management. Using the aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and climate datasets (1982–2015), we employed piecewise linear regression, LOWESS, and sliding window partial correlation analysis to identify temporal turning points and dynamic climate–productivity relationships. We identified distinct turning points in 1994 and 2008, revealing a phased “Increasing–Decreasing–Increasing” trajectory. A key novelty is the mapping of eight phased trajectory patterns, illustrating significant spatial heterogeneity in productivity trends. Furthermore, we demonstrate temporally reversed climate sensitivities. Notably, the sensitivity of ANPP to temperature shifted from positive to negative as warming-induced water stress intensified. While precipitation remains the dominant driver (68% of the region), its influence is nonstationary and state-dependent. In the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, the limiting factor transitioned from thermal to water availability. Overall, productivity in the EASR appears to undergo phased reorganization under shifting climatic baselines. Our findings suggest that future ecosystem models should incorporate time-varying sensitivity parameters to account for nonlinear dynamics and potential trend reversals in grassland ecosystems.