The role of institutional quality in shaping inflation and food security dynamics in Africa

This study investigates the effects of inflation on food security in Africa and examines the moderating role of institutional quality. Using secondary panel data from 1995 to 2020 across 32 countries, the analysis employs various econometric techniques: Common Correlated Effects (CCE), Panel Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE), and System Generalized Method of Moments (System-GMM). Robustness checks strengthen the validity of the results. Key variables include a constructed food security index, a global consumer price index, GDP per capita, fixed telephone subscriptions, domestic credit, population, employment, and six indicators of institutional quality. Findings reveal that inflation negatively affects food security, although the extent varies across models. Importantly, strong institutional quality reduces the harmful impact of inflation on food access. These results highlight the vulnerability of Africa’s food systems to price volatility and emphasize the importance of governance in ensuring food security. Policy recommendations include strengthening institutions, establishing a Pan-African Price Observatory, setting up regional food reserves, and deploying real-time price monitoring. Additional strategies such as subsidizing agricultural inputs, implementing taxes on high-income consumers, and targeting financial transfers to vulnerable households are essential for enhancing food resilience across the continent.