Probabilistic Seismic Fragility of Arch Dam Abutments Under Uplift Pressure

Uplift pressure is a major contributor to seismic instability in arch dam abutments, particularly where jointed rock masses form wedge-shaped failure blocks. This study develops an integrated numerical framework combining nonlinear finite element analysis, the Londe limit-equilibrium method, and Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) to quantify the seismic stability of multiple abutment wedges in the Bakhtiari Arch Dam. A three-dimensional finite element model is used to compute dam–abutment thrust forces, while sixteen far-field ground motions are scaled to capture the progression of wedge instability with increasing spectral acceleration. Uplift pressures on joint planes are varied to represent different levels of grout curtain performance. The results indicate that uplift pressure is the dominant factor controlling wedge stability, substantially reducing effective normal stresses and shifting IDA and fragility curves toward lower acceleration demands. Deep wedges (WL4, WL5, WL6 located in the left abutment of the dam) exhibit the highest vulnerability, with instability probabilities exceeding 50% at spectral accelerations as low as 0.34 g under 50% uplift conditions, compared with values greater than 0.65 g for upper wedges. Parametric analyses further show that increasing the joint friction angle significantly enhances seismic resistance, whereas cohesion has a comparatively minor effect. The findings emphasize the necessity of accurate uplift characterization and wedge-specific seismic assessment, and they highlight the crucial role of grout-curtain effectiveness in ensuring the seismic safety of arch dam abutments.