Trump and the US Energy Transition

The US electricity grid has seen a rapid increase in the amount of renewable energy over the last decade, with many renewable advocates viewing the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 as the catalyst to move the grid towards 100% clean energy. The 2024 elections, however, have significantly muddied the path. In this commentary, I posit what the Trump administration—and related Republican control of both houses of the US Congress—means for the US electricity system. I begin by briefly outlining the contours of federal and state electricity governance, the design of Inflation Reduction Act, the existing drivers of renewable energy growth in the United States, and the potential for electricity demand growth in the United States. I continue by briefly pointing to likely outcomes for the predominant fossil fuels on the grid—natural gas and coal—before pointing to the potential for continuing growth in renewable energy. In the conclusion, I argue that while renewable energy will not cease to be developed, four years of Trump increases the certainty that the clean energy transition will continue to be patchy and, sadly, all too slow.