Dynamics of First Home Selection for New Families in Riyadh: Analyzing Behavioral Trade-Offs and Spatial Fit

This study investigates the challenge of affordable housing in Riyadh, a city undergoing rapid transformation aligned with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. It aims to bridge the structural gap in the housing market by developing a comprehensive analytical framework that measures housing suitability for emerging middle-income families, linking it to economic, spatial, and behavioral dimensions. The research employs a sequential mixed-methods design. The first phase involved a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) of 106 residential neighborhoods, constructing a Housing Suitability Index (HSI) based on financing cost (≤SAR 880,000), quality of urban life, and geographical accessibility. The second phase utilized focus groups with 16 participants from real estate developers and new families to explore behavioral drivers and subjective trade-offs. Quantitative results identified “convenience clusters” primarily in the city’s southeastern and southwestern sectors, offering an optimal balance between price and accessibility. Qualitative analysis revealed a significant trust gap and a misalignment of priorities: new families are increasingly willing to sacrifice unit size for central location and construction quality, a preference that conflicts with developers’ strategies focused on luxury units or peripheral projects for higher margins. The study concludes that achieving the 70% homeownership target requires a hybrid policy model, combining supply-side stimuli (e.g., subsidized land) with demand-side management (e.g., progressive mortgages). It recommends integrating the HSI into urban planning to direct investment towards logistically connected areas, fostering sustainable communities.