Evaluating the Offshore and Onshore Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Potential in Jamaica Using PCA-Based Site Selection

Small island developing states (SIDS) face persistent energy security challenges due to heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels, with Jamaica experiencing residential electricity costs often exceeding 0.30 USD/kWh. This study presents the first national-scale, spatially explicit assessment of ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) potential around Jamaica, integrating oceanographic conditions, bathymetry, and infrastructure constraints with an archival-calibrated economic framework. Vertical thermal gradients between surface (20 m) and deep (1000 m) waters consistently exceed the 20 °C threshold required for closed-cycle operation across the entire Exclusive Economic Zone. Principal component analysis (PCA) identified five priority offshore zones where steep bathymetry enables deep-water access within 5–15 km of the coastline. To ensure technical realism, economic screening was calibrated against archival benchmarks adjusted via the U.S. Manufacturing Price Index (MPI). Results indicate that 10 MW offshore configurations yield a mean levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of 0.81 USD/kWh, exceeding current retail benchmarks. However, a strategic “economic window” was identified for near-shore onshore configurations; specifically, site ON-4 achieves an LCOE of 0.26 USD/kWh, effectively undercutting Jamaica’s all-in residential electricity price (≈0.33 USD/kWh). While offshore OTEC remains capital-intensive at the 10 MW scale, this study demonstrates that Jamaica’s exceptional nearshore bathymetry provides a credible pathway for first-of-a-kind onshore deployment, offering a stable, baseload alternative to volatile imported fuels.