Beyond waterlogging: Evaluating the impact of extreme rainfall on the road network

Existing research of extreme rainfall impact on transport networks primarily examines the effect of waterlogging. Although the other two main factors-reduced visibility and traffic-signal power outages-have been shown to significantly affect road operation, their contributions at the network scale remain underexplored. Taking a macroscopic approach, this study gauges the impacts of these three factors on the road network connectivity and efficiency during extreme rainfall through a case study of 26 Local Government Areas in and around Greater London. The result shows that focusing solely on waterlogging while disregarding reduced visibility and traffic signal power failures overestimates road capacities by 15-30% and underestimates network efficiency impacts by 1–23% under different rainfall scenarios. Particularly, the largest impact underestimation is observed for 1-in-30-year rainfall risk, where waterlogging is less dominant, while poor visibility considerably contributes to the impacts. The analysis also suggests that signal power failures during rainfall have limited, localised effects at the network level.

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Publication Details

Journal
Reliability Engineering & System Safety
Published
2026-01-29
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2026.112308
Primary Topic
Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis
Type
article
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article

Beyond waterlogging: Evaluating the impact of extreme rainfall on the road network

Kristen MacAskill, Zizhen Xu, Li Wan, Jie Liu
Reliability Engineering & System Safety
Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis
article

Beyond waterlogging: Evaluating the impact of extreme rainfall on the road network

Kristen MacAskill, Zizhen Xu, Li Wan, Jie Liu
article en

Abstract

Existing research of extreme rainfall impact on transport networks primarily examines the effect of waterlogging. Although the other two main factors-reduced visibility and traffic-signal power outages-have been shown to significantly affect road operation, their contributions at the network scale remain underexplored. Taking a macroscopic approach, this study gauges the impacts of these three factors on the road network connectivity and efficiency during extreme rainfall through a case study of 26 Local Government Areas in and around Greater London. The result shows that focusing solely on waterlogging while disregarding reduced visibility and traffic signal power failures overestimates road capacities by 15-30% and underestimates network efficiency impacts by 1–23% under different rainfall scenarios. Particularly, the largest impact underestimation is observed for 1-in-30-year rainfall risk, where waterlogging is less dominant, while poor visibility considerably contributes to the impacts. The analysis also suggests that signal power failures during rainfall have limited, localised effects at the network level.

Reliability Engineering & System SafetyVol. 273
University of Cambridge (GB)
Openalex Percentile: Top 74%
Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis
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