Landscape ecological risk evolution and dynamic simulation of urban agglomeration around Poyang lake based on land use

Assessing landscape ecological risk based on land use is crucial for managing regional ecological security and guiding urban development. This study investigates the urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake (UAAPL) and employs the landscape ecological risk model and the PLUS model to analyze the distribution and spatial patterns of landscape ecological risks from 2000 to 2020, and projects risks for 2030. The main findings are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the area was dominated by forestland and cropland, covering over 85% of the total. The area of construction land increased by 95.71%, while arable land, forestland, and grassland decreased by 3.1%, 1.3%, and 9.76%. Land-use changes primarily occurred through transitions between arable land, forestland, and construction land. (2) The Moran’s I for landscape ecological risk remained above 0.9 during this period, indicating strong spatial clustering. High-risk, medium-high-risk, and medium-risk areas expanded by 258 km2, 2,016.75 km2, and 1,342.5 km2, respectively, while low-risk and medium-low-risk areas contracted. The expansion of construction land was the main driver of this trend, increasing landscape ecological risks and degrading the environment. (3) By 2030, under the ecological protection scenario, the area of ecological improvement is expected to reach 1,899.5 km2, while the growth of ecologically deteriorated areas will be significantly reduced. (4) The area of construction land constitutes the dominant driver influencing the spatial differentiation of landscape ecological risk in the UAAPL, and the interaction between construction land area and slope serves as the primary factor shaping the spatial variation of landscape ecological risk across the basin. These findings provide valuable implications for ecological management and planning in the UAAPL.