Spatiotemporal Evolution and Scenario Simulation of Production–Living–Ecological Space (PLES) in Changsha: A Long-Term Analysis Based on 2010, 2020, and 2025 Data

As a core city in central China and a key node of the Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan (CZT) Metropolitan Area, Changsha has experienced profound territorial space restructuring amid rapid urbanization and high-quality development. This study focuses on the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics, driving mechanisms, and future optimization paths of production–living–ecological space (PLES) in Changsha, using three key time nodes: 2010, 2020, and 2025. Based on updated land use data (30 m spatial resolution), socioeconomic statistics, and the latest territorial spatial planning policies, we integrated multiple research methods including the land use transfer matrix, dynamic degree model, Logistic regression, and FLUS (Future Land Use Simulation) model. The results reveal the evolutionary law of PLES space from “rapid expansion” (2010–2020) to “quality improvement” (2020–2025) in Changsha and simulate the 2035 PLES layout under three scenarios (natural development, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection) incorporating rigid policy constraints such as urban development boundaries and ecological conservation red lines. This research provides updated scientific support for the coordinated and sustainable development of territorial space in new first-tier cities and metropolitan area cores.