Quantitative assessment of water-related ecological security patterns based on ecosystem service flows: A case study of Jilin Province, China

The water-related ecological security pattern directly impacts the allocation and utilization efficiency of regional water resources, and its quantitative assessment is a core requirement for water resource management and planning. However, current assessments of water-related ecological security patterns suffer from insufficient dynamic quantitative modeling, oversimplified river network structures, and neglect of variations in cropland types. Therefore, this study employs a comprehensive approach integrating PLUS multi-scenario land-use simulation, InVEST ecosystem service flow assessment, and the MCR model to quantitatively analyze the supply-demand patterns of water ecosystem services in Jilin Province from 2000 to 2032. The results showed: 1. Persistent service deficits exist in the irrigated croplands of Baicheng and Songyuan in the northwest, while the mountainous areas of Tonghua, Baishan, and Liaoyuan in the southeast serve as primary supply units. This study identified 71 ecological corridors and 58 vulnerable nodes. These include 18 important corridors and 9 early warning nodes. 2. All three scenarios maintain the "southeast surplus-northwest deficit" pattern by 2032. Under the natural development and ecological conservation scenarios, early warning nodes clustered toward the northwest and southeast, respectively, primarily distributed along the Songhua River, the second Songhua River, and the surrounding areas of adjacent cities. Under the farmland conservation scenario, early warning nodes exhibited a strip-like distribution along the depth, with overall aquatic ecosystem health declining. 3. Model validation indicates PLUS simulation accuracy reaches 0.92 (Kappa = 0.87). The annual average aquatic production calculated by the InVEST model shows an error of approximately 2.35% compared to measured data, demonstrating reliable results. These findings contribute to optimizing the spatial configuration of aquatic ecosystems and hold significant implications for multi-scale water security assurance and sustainable water resource management.