Short-term gains or long-term growth? An empirical analysis of shareholder returns in Brazilian corporations

Abstract This paper analyses the determinants of shareholder returns of Brazilian publicly traded companies in the period 2001–21. The empirical study shows that in the short-term, earnings distributions via dividends, interest on equity and share repurchases contribute to increase the shareholder returns. In contrast, in the long term, capital inflows and retained profits channelled towards productive investments predominantly foster shareholder value. The study shows empirical evidence on a trade-off between dividends and productive investment in the short and long term. A corporate strategy that prioritizes short-term gains can compromise the long-term growth of companies. The study proposes that the current tax framework and financial market regulation may serve to mitigate the short-term predilections of certain shareholder segments.