Decoding Climate Change: A Comprehensive Statistical Insight Into Temperature Anomalies in Iraq and Its Neighboring Countries

This study applies advanced statistical techniques, including the Mann-Kendall Trend Test and ARIMA forecasting, to validate and predict temperature anomalies across Iraq and its neighboring countries (2014–2024). Findings confirm a statistically significant warming trend (p < 0.00000005) across all nations, with Syria (1.02°C) and Turkey (0.97°C) experiencing the highest anomalies. GIS-based spatial analysis highlights regional disparities, identifying climate-vulnerable zones. The persistent rise in temperature anomalies correlates with worsening water scarcity, desertification, and extreme weather events, including prolonged droughts and heatwaves. Iraq’s peak anomaly (1.48°C) has exacerbated heat stress, agricultural decline, and reduced river inflows, while Kuwait and Saudi Arabia struggle to maintain critical infrastructure under record-breaking temperatures exceeding 50°C. These climate shifts pose severe risks to water availability, food security, and energy demand, necessitating urgent policy interventions. Key recommendations include enhanced water resource management, climate-adaptive agriculture, and renewable energy expansion. If left unaddressed, rising temperatures could destabilize the region, increasing socio-economic vulnerabilities and escalating resource conflicts. This study underscores the need for cross-border collaboration and sustainable adaptation policies to mitigate the long-term impacts of climate change in the Middle East.