The Impact of Pre-divorce and Post-divorce Counselling in Monogamous Marriages: A Mathematical Modelling Perspective

This study presents a deterministic compartmental model to investigate the impact of pre-divorce and post-divorce counselling on the dynamics of divorce within monogamous marriages. The model incorporates counselling as both a preventive and restorative mechanism and derives the threshold quantity R0, which determines whether divorce persists or dies out in the population. Analytical results show that the divorce-free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically stable when R0 ≤ 1, whereas the divorceendemic equilibrium becomes stable when R0 > 1. The model further exhibits backward bifurcation, implying that reducing R0 below one is not sufficient to eliminate divorce unless counselling interventions are intensified. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the divorce transmission rate (β) and pre-divorce counselling rate (ε) are the most influential parameters affecting R0. Numerical simulations confirm the analytical results and demonstrate that strengthening counselling efforts reduces the prevalence of divorce substantially. The study highlights key policy implications and provides recommendations toward reducing marital instability through integrated counselling programmes.