Legal Qualification of the Risks and Consequences of Permafrost Degradation

The aim of this article is to develop a systematic approach to the legal qualification of negative impacts resulting from permafrost degradation in the Arctic. The relevance of the research is determined by growing climate-related threats to infrastructure, ecosystems, and social stability, which necessitate a shift from fragmented regulatory responses to comprehensive legal regulation. Based on interdisciplinary and comparative legal analysis, the article reveals the fragmented nature of existing legislation in Arctic countries, which remains largely oriented toward addressing consequences rather than preventive risk management. A key contribution of the study is the proposed classification of negative impacts, which conceptualizes permafrost as an independent object of legal protection rather than merely a source of secondary risks. This reconceptualization is essential for moving from reactive regulation to preventive risk governance, as it justifies the imposition of mandatory adaptation measures at the stage of risk identification, prior to the occurrence of harm. On this basis, the article substantiates a two-tier regulatory model comprising preventive measures (monitoring, standards, zoning) at the risk stage and liability mechanisms (compensation and restoration) once legally cognizable harm has materialized. The findings of the study provide a foundation for the differentiated and equitable distribution of responsibility among states, business actors, and financial institutions, and may inform the development of a Model Law “On the Protection and Sustainable Management of Permafrost” as a legal instrument for advancing proactive Arctic risk management and national adaptation strategies.