Assessing carbon farming potential in Victoria, Australia: A statewide perspective

This study evaluates the potential for carbon farming across Victoria, Australia, using a spatial multi-criteria suitability mapping framework grounded in seven key biophysical criteria. Suitability scores were generated at 90 m resolution and classified into four zones using the Jenks natural breaks method. The results classified 17.3 % of the state as the Highest Potential (HstP), 27.7 % as High Potential (HiP), 38.9 % as Moderate Potential (MP), and 16.1 % as Low Potential (LP) zones. To link suitability with mitigation outcomes, statewide carbon sequestration was estimated under different land adoption scenarios, with uncertainty quantified using Latin Hypercube Sampling (n = 10,000). Median annual sequestration potential for the state ranged from 2.28 Mt CO 2 yr −1 under conservative adoption to 31.16 Mt CO 2 yr −1 under ambitious adoption. Under the ambitious scenario, the 5th-95th percentile range extended from 8.16 to 59.31 Mt, highlighting both uncertainty and the potential for very high abatement under favourable conditions. While the HstP and HiP zones deliver the highest per-hectare returns, the MP zone provides the greatest overall contribution due to its larger extent. The framework provides a transparent, scalable tool for prioritising carbon farming investments, highlighting both opportunities and constraints. It offers practical guidance for policymakers, investors, and land managers to direct resources to areas with the highest potential for sustainable climate mitigation and ecological restoration. • Spatial multi-criteria suitability mapping to assess carbon farming potential across Victoria, Australia. • Holistic method, underpinned by 7 fundamental biophysical criteria including ecological feasibility. • Priority mapping and sequestration estimates support transparent, robust policy and investment decisions. • Analysis of abandoned mines as potential carbon farming sites, aligning climate mitigation with land rehabilitation.