A Hybrid Variational Mode Decomposition, Transformer-For Time Series, and Long Short-Term Memory Framework for Long-Term Battery Capacity Degradation Prediction of Electric Vehicles Using Real-World Charging Data

Considering the nonlinear trends, multi-scale variations, and capacity regeneration phenomena exhibited by battery capacity degradation under real-world conditions, accurately predicting its trajectory remains a critical challenge for ensuring the reliability and safety of electric vehicles. To address this, this study proposes a hybrid prediction framework based on Variational Mode Decomposition and a Transformer–Long Short-Term Memory architecture. Specifically, the proposed Variational Mode Decomposition–Transformer for Time Series–Long Short-Term Memory (VMD–TTS–LSTM) framework first decomposes the capacity sequence using Variational Mode Decomposition. The resulting modal components are then aggregated into high-frequency and low-frequency parts based on their frequency centroids, followed by targeted feature analysis for each part. Subsequently, a simplified Transformer encoder (Transformer for Time Series, TTS) is employed to model high-frequency fluctuations, while a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network captures the long-term degradation trends. Evaluated on charging data from 20 commercial electric vehicles under a long-horizon setting of 20 input steps predicting 100 steps ahead, the proposed method achieves a mean absolute error of 0.9247 and a root mean square error of 1.0151, demonstrating improved accuracy and robustness. The results confirm that the proposed frequency-partitioned, heterogeneous modeling strategy provides a practical and effective solution for battery health prediction and energy management in real-world electric vehicle operation.