From shadows to data: first robust population assessment of snow leopards in Pakistan

The snow leopard Panthera uncia is a flagship species of the greater Himalayan region and symbolizes the integrity of this ecological system. Within the greater Himalayas, Pakistan holds special significance as the north of the country represents a confluence of three major mountain ranges (Hindu Kush, Pamir–Karakoram, and Himalaya). However, robustly surveying and monitoring elusive, low‐density species such as snow leopards has historically been difficult in the region. As a result, our understanding of the spatial patterns in density and overall population size of snow leopards has remained conjectural in Pakistan. This lack of objective information is an obstacle to realizing effective conservation planning for the species in Pakistan, as well as the broader ecosystem within which it plays a key role. This study aimed to empirically derive population estimates for snow leopards in Pakistan, based on extensive camera trapping conducted over a decade (2010–2019), covering about 39% of the species' range across four major mountain ranges in northern Pakistan. A total of 828 cameras were placed over 26 540 trap days, resulting in 4712 photos of snow leopards obtained from 65 different locations. Among the 53 unique individuals identified, the majority (53%) were detected only once, with an overall recapture frequency of 2.28 times per individual. Spatial capture–recapture (SCR) was employed for population and density estimation. Model selection strongly favored a model in which density was negatively associated with distance to the closest glacier and positively associated with elevation, and baseline encounter rates were higher in the Pamir–Karakoram region and with Reconyx cameras than in other regions and types of cameras. The estimated population size for snow leopards in Pakistan was 155 (95% CI 100–239), with a mean density of 0.16 (95% CI 0.10–0.24) animals per 100 km 2 . This research provides the first robust population estimate for snow leopards in this region, establishing a foundation for long‐term population monitoring and assessing the effectiveness of conservation measures. We recommend the integration of complementary approaches, such as non‐invasive genetic methods, to validate and refine population estimates.