A hybrid fuzzy cognitive–system dynamics framework for modeling environmental risk evolution in construction megaprojects

Emphasizing the critical role of sustainability, this research comprehensively assesses environmental risks in industrial-construction megaprojects and shows that identifying and managing these risks can help reduce negative environmental consequences and improve sustainable decision-making. The present study aims to analyze the environmental risk management system in a megaproject as a case. Therefore, the innovation of this research lies in the use of a system dynamics approach and fuzzy cognitive mapping to identify and assess environmental risks in large-scale industrial and civil engineering projects. Based on this analysis, each aspect of a project's environmental risk management is ranked using the Analytic Network Process (ANP), and Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) and causal relationships are examined. Also, using the Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) approach, the in degree, out degree, and centrality of each risk have been identified. Then, the behavioral model is determined based on the system dynamics. The risk of completing the project timely and the issues related to the increase in time due to environmental laws were ranked first, an over predicted increase in the project time due to environmental laws was ranked second, and the factor of environmental issues and problems was ranked third. Environmental issues and problems have the highest impact and the risk of completing the project timely and the issues related to the increase in time due to environmental laws were the most affected factor. Experts believe that the involvement of several institutions and decision-making from the perspective of environmental climate issues is one of the most significant environmental risks affecting the completion of the project. This issue is because the risk of completing the project timely from an environmental perspective and environmental issues and problems is reduced by controlling and reducing this risk. These two risks are increasing with an increase in the risk of conflict among several decision-making institutions from the perspective of environmental climate issues. The risk of the involvement of several decision-making institutions from a climate and environmental perspective is directly associated with two risks of environmental issues and problems and the risk of completing the project timely. Thus, the institutions involved in the climate and environmental issues of the project can reduce the risk of timely completion of the project and environmental issues and problems with mechanisms and memorandums that reduce the risk of conflict among them.