Comparative study on predicting postoperative distant metastasis of lung cancer based on machine learning models

Lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer-related incidence and mortality worldwide. Its tendency for postoperative distant metastasis significantly compromises long-term prognosis and survival. Accurately predicting the metastatic potential in a timely manner is crucial for formulating optimal treatment strategies. This study aimed to comprehensively compare the predictive performance of nine machine learning (ML) models and to enhance interpretability through SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations), with the goal of developing a practical and transparent risk stratification tool for postoperative lung cancer management. Clinical data from 3,120 patients with stage I-III lung cancer who underwent radical surgery were retrospectively collected and randomly divided into training and testing cohorts. A total of 52 clinical, pathological, imaging, and laboratory variables were analyzed. Nine ML models-including eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Decision Tree (DT), Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), Complement Naive Bayes (CNB), and Multilayer Perceptron classifier (MLP)-were developed and evaluated. Model performance was assessed using accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, ROC-AUC, PR-AUC, calibration, and decision curve analysis (DCA). All models were evaluated using nested cross-validation (outer stratified 70/30 splits repeated 10 times; inner fivefold tuning), with decision thresholds prespecified in the inner loop and applied unchanged to held-out tests. Given the approximately 4:1 class imbalance, cost-sensitive learning was primarily adopted, and PR-AUC was reported in addition to ROC-AUC. Among the nine models, GBDT demonstrated the highest predictive performance, achieving an AUC of 0.810 (95% CI: 0.748-0.872), accuracy of 0.766, sensitivity of 0.698, and specificity of 0.786 in the test set. SHAP analysis revealed that adjuvant chemotherapy, adjuvant radiotherapy, pathological N stage, age, body mass index (BMI), and preoperative neutrophil count (Pre-ANC) were the most influential predictors of distant metastasis. The combination of model performance and interpretability supported the model's potential for integration into clinical workflows to assist in real-time decision-making. In this work, we carried out a systematic comparison of nine machine learning algorithms in a large postoperative cohort under a coherent and interpretable framework. By jointly considering discrimination, calibration, clinical benefit (via decision curve analysis), and SHAP-based explanations, we constructed a practical prognostic tool to guide personalized treatment strategies and follow-up care. This methodology offers a data-driven basis for precision management. Ultimately, our findings provide an internally validated reference framework that warrants external and multicenter validation prior to clinical deployment.