Research on the Forecasting of Strategic Mineral Resource Scrap and Gap Rate of Electric Vehicles Based on a Life Cycle Perspective

The rapid development of electric vehicles (EVs) will inevitably consume substantial scarce resources, posing risks and challenges to their supply chains. From a life cycle perspective, this study innovatively incorporates charging piles (CPs) into the research scope. Six scenarios are established to quantitatively analyze the scrap and recovery volume of 20 metallic and 3 non-metallic strategic mineral resources in lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) and CPs for China’s passenger EVs during 2010–2050. Under six scenarios, the results show that Al in LIBs and Fe in CPs have the highest scrap volumes, increasing from 2.69 t in 2010 to 2.98 × 106 t in 2050 and from 34.76 t in 2024 to 1.14 × 106 t in 2050, respectively. In contrast, Co in LIBs and Zr in CPs have the smallest scrap volumes, increasing from 0.22 t in 2012 to 8.25 × 104 t in 2050 and from 8.8 × 10−7 t in 2024 to 1.52 × 10−5 t in 2050, respectively. Over 97% of Li, Co, Ni, and Al originates from LIBs during 2026–2050, while Fe and Cu from CPs show notable growth, underscoring recycling urgency. Recycle-demand analysis in LIB reveals the gap rate for nine elements. Seven elements’ gap rates are 0.39–0.81 (GI = 80%) and 0.25–0.75 (GI = 100%), while Fe’s gap rate turns to 0 in 2045 due to LFP phase-out and P’s gap rate reaches −1.22 (GI = 80%) and −1.77 (GI = 100%) in 2045 before rebounding.