ANALYZING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 24 CARAT GOLD PRICE AND CONSUMER PRICE INDEX IN MYANMAR

This study examines the dynamic relationship between 24-carat gold prices and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Myanmar from April 2012 to July 2022, a period marked by economic instability, currency depreciation, and political upheaval. Gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, but its effectiveness in Myanmar's unique economic context remains underexplored. Using monthly data sourced from Myanmar's Central Statistical Organization (CSO), the study employs advanced time series econometric techniques, including unit root tests, cointegration analysis, Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR), and Granger causality tests. Descriptive statistics reveal stark differences in volatility and show that gold prices moved up and down sharply, while CPI increased at a more stable pace. Unit root tests confirm that both variables are non-stationary at level but achieve stationarity after first differencing. Granger causality analysis further identifies the directional relationship, with gold prices influencing future CPI movements, suggesting that gold serves as a leading indicator of inflationary trends in Myanmar.