The future of Colombian Andean forests under different deforestation scenarios

Deforestation is a major environmental threat in Colombia, particularly in the Andean region, which harbors exceptional biodiversity and provides critical ecosystem services. This study assessed the projected deforestation in Colombian Andean forests under two scenarios—Business as Usual -BAU- and Governance -GOV- for the 2018–2030 and 2030–2050 periods, using spatially explicit models. Forest types were classified based on national ecosystem maps, and changes were estimated for the Andes, and within National Natural Parks. Under the BAU scenario, deforestation is widespread, especially in Basal and Fragmented forests, which by 2050 show declines of up to 8 % and 5.4 %, respectively. In contrast, Andean and Sub-Andean forests exhibit lower losses, though still notable over time. The GOV scenario projects significantly lower deforestation rates across all forest types and periods, with total losses remaining below 0.5 %. Within protected areas, forest loss is limited (<0.8 %) under all scenarios, but higher under BAU, particularly in Catatumbo Barí and Cordillera de los Picachos parks. These findings highlight contrasting futures for Andean forests depending on governance pathways. While the BAU scenario reflects continued deforestation despite protection efforts, the GOV scenario underscores the positive impact of improved institutional frameworks and land-use policies. This study emphasizes the urgent need to strengthen governance and enforcement mechanisms, even within protected areas, to safeguard Colombian biodiversity and ecosystem services. Our projections offer a valuable tool for anticipating deforestation risks and inform adaptive, regionally tailored conservation strategies in one of South America's most ecologically important regions.