Strategic Foresight of Sustainable Development in Free and Special Economic Zones: Designing a Scenario-Based backcasting Model

In the current situation, the process of economic liberalization is considered an inevitable necessity, so the necessity of forming and developing sustainable free and special economic zones seems essential from the perspective of the concept of green globalization. The purpose of the present study is to design a strategic model for the sustainable development of free and special economic zones through the backcasting and scenario writing approach in futures studies in order to ensure the long-term flexibility and efficiency of the system through this model. The present study was conducted in the category of qualitative studies and with a normative futures research approach focusing on scenario-based backcasting modeling. In the meta-theme analysis section, based on the review of 12 related studies, 4 main dimensions (economic, social, environmental, and governance-institutional) and 26 components were identified. The results of the micro-analysis section identified “political and legal stability of the country” as an independent factor and a necessary condition, and “institutional efficiency” and “transparency/fighting corruption” as key levers of the system. The research results indicate that sustainable development in Iran's free and special economic zones is not simply an economic or managerial issue, but is entirely conditional on a structural and independent driver.