Evaluation of Indicators and Low-Carbon Urban Policy Priorities in Iranian Urban Development Programs (Shirez City Case Study)

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Climate change driven by increasing greenhouse gas emissions is one of the most critical global challenges. The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report highlights that limiting global warming requires rapid and sustainable reductions in CO₂, methane, and other greenhouse gases, which also improve air quality. Developing countries, including Iran, contribute significantly to global emissions, emphasizing the need to integrate low-carbon strategies into urban development plans. This study aims to identify and prioritize low-carbon city indicators within Iran’s current and future urban development programs using a qualitative approach. METHODS: Indicators and policy guidelines were categorized based on theoretical literature to form a conceptual framework. Statistical analyses were then conducted on the effects of these indicators within provincial development programs, regional drafts, and the comprehensive plan of Shiraz. Data were collected through questionnaires completed by decision-makers and policymakers. Governance conditions in developing countries were also considered to establish policy priorities for sustainable urban development. FINDINGS: Results show that the building sector (0.251) and waste generation (0.240) exert the greatest influence on existing plans, whereas energy consumption, social indicators, and water use have lesser effects. Experts assign higher priority to urban mobility, social aspects, and energy consumption in future policies. CONCLUSION: Integrating low-carbon indicators into urban planning is essential for aligning local development strategies with global climate goals. The findings provide a policy-oriented framework for promoting sustainable, low-carbon urban development in Iran.