Measuring livelihood resilience and its determinants among smallholder farmers facing climate change in the Sidaama region of Ethiopia using beta regression

Climate change presents an escalating threat to smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Ethiopia. This study assessed the livelihood resilience and its determinants among smallholder farmers in the Sidaama Region by examining absorptive, adaptive, and transformative capacities across three agroecological zones (AEZs): highland, midland, and lowland. Using a mixed-methods approach within a descriptive and explanatory sequential design, data were collected from 391 systematically selected households. A composite Livelihood Resilience Index (LRI), Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney U tests, and beta regression with a clog-log link function were employed to analyze resilience patterns and determinants, including heterogeneity across zones. Findings revealed that the midland zone had the highest overall resilience (LRI = 0.484), followed by the highland (0.477) and lowland (0.445). Absorptive capacity was highest in the lowland (0.389), adaptive capacity in the highland (0.484), and transformative capacity in the midland (0.626). Key positive predictors of resilience included land under soil and water conservation (38%), small-scale irrigation (21.17%), crop diversification (12.64%), junior secondary education (11.4%), and leadership roles—especially iddir leadership (23.99%). Conversely, older age and lowland residence were negatively associated with resilience. Heterogeneity analysis showed that the effects of resilience drivers varied across AEZs due to distinct biophysical and socio-economic contexts. The study concludes that building resilience requires integrated, context-specific strategies that enhance not only coping mechanisms but also long-term transformative adaptive and structural capacities. Policymakers and practitioners should prioritize equitable investment in education, infrastructure, irrigation, and local institutions to sustainably enhance resilience among smallholder farmers.