ASSESSING THE ROLE OF TRADE WITH RUSSIA IN AZERBAIJAN'S ECONOMY

This study investigates the impact of Azerbaijan’s trade turnover with Russia on the country’s economic growth over the period 2005–2024. Using annual time-series data, the relationship between trade turnover with Russia and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Azerbaijan is examined through econometric methods implemented in EViews software. The methodological approach involves descriptive statistics, graphical trend analysis, correlation assessment, and regression modeling to evaluate both the strength and direction of the relationship between the variables. To ensure the reliability of the results, several diagnostic and statistical tests were conducted. Stationarity properties of the series were examined using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, following which additional tests such as the White test and Breusch-Pagan test were performed to detect possible heteroskedasticity in the regression model. Model stability and structural consistency were evaluated through the CUSUM test, confirming the robustness of estimations over the selected period. Results of the descriptive and graphical analysis indicate noticeable fluctuations in trade turnover, largely reflecting economic policy changes, international market movements, and geopolitical dynamics. The correlation analysis reveals a positive and meaningful association between GDP and trade turnover, while regression outcomes suggest that trade relations with Russia have a statistically significant effect on Azerbaijan’s economic growth. Overall, the findings highlight the economic relevance of Azerbaijan–Russia trade relations and provide empirical evidence on how external trade partnerships contribute to national economic performance. The study offers insights for policymakers regarding the importance of maintaining and diversifying strategic trade relationships.