Quantifying the impact of land use and land cover change on land surface temperature using spatiotemporal multispectral remote sensing data

Urbanization in secondary Indian cities is reshaping local thermal environments by converting natural and agricultural surfaces into impervious built-up areas. This study examines three decades of changes in land use and land cover and their influence on land surface temperature in Ballia City, Uttar Pradesh, using Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI TIRS imagery for the years 1994, 2004, 2014 and 2024. Supervised classification with the Maximum Likelihood algorithm was used to map land use transitions, and standard thermal retrieval procedures were applied to extract land surface temperature. Multispectral indices, including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Normalized Difference Built-up Index, Modified Normalized Difference Water Index, and Modified Normalized Difference Bare Soil Index, were computed to examine biophysical controls. Linear regression was performed to quantify the relationships between land surface temperature and spectral indices. The results show that built-up area expanded from 26.4 percent to 59.7 percent of the city’s area, while agricultural land declined from 47.1 percent to 23.3 percent, vegetation from 12.3 percent to 7 percent, and water bodies from 2 percent to 0.3 percent. Mean land surface temperature increased from 27.3 °C in 1994 to 34.2 °C in 2024, indicating a total rise of 6.9 °C. Thermal zone analysis shows the disappearance of cooler classes below 25.5 °C and the emergence of extreme heat zones above 35.8 °C that now cover 7.8 percent of the city. Vegetation exhibited a consistent negative association with land surface temperature, while built-up surfaces were moderately and positively associated with higher temperatures. Water bodies and bare soil showed weak negative relationships, indicating their limited cooling influence under expanding urban pressure. Overall, rapid urbanization is the dominant driver of surface warming in Ballia, increasing thermal stress and reducing ecological resilience. Strengthening green corridors, restoring wetlands, and promoting peri urban agroforestry in alignment with Sustainable Development Goal 11 and India’s Sustainable Habitat Mission can help mitigate rising temperatures. These findings underscore the need for locally tailored land use policies to balance urban growth with environmental sustainability.