Harnessing EO and Natural Experiments for Urban Development: The UDENE Approach

Abstract. Urban Development Explorations using Natural Experiments (UDENE) is a forward-looking initiative under the Horizon Europe program that merges Earth Observation (EO) technologies with urban planning to tackle pressing urban challenges. By utilizing Copernicus satellite imagery and organizing local in-situ data into interoperable data cubes, UDENE provides a comprehensive framework for data-driven decision-making. Further, it is applied the concept of “natural experiments” - real-life changes analyzed with the rigor of controlled studies - to uncover causal relationships in urban development. A primary goal is to incorporate structured urban data into the broader Copernicus data cube federation, enabling consistent analysis of urban impacts across different times and locations. To support this, UDENE develops advanced sensitivity analysis methods for validating and applying multivariate causal models, enhancing predictions on factors such as air pollution, urban heat, mobility, and disaster resilience. To close the gap between high-level EO technologies and real-world planning needs, we are introducing the three core tools: the UDENE’s Data Cube, which populates in-situ data EO based analysis-ready data and datasets; the Exploration Tool, which empowers planners and policymakers to simulate, assess, and visualize urban interventions; and a matchmaking tool connecting users with EO-based services. Together, these tools foster informed urban strategies grounded in EO data and causal inference.