Beyond Hedging and Bandwagoning: Approaching Myanmar’s Engagement With External Powers Through the Lens of Diversification and Prudence (2016–2021)

Recent studies on Myanmar’s foreign relations during its democratic transition (2011–2021) focus on its relations vis-à-vis great powers through the lens of hedging and bandwagoning. This article puts forward diversification and prudence as alternative conceptual frameworks that foreground our analysis on small states’ agency and preferences in approaching Myanmar’s external engagement during the period of National League for Democracy (NLD) government. During the period, Myanmar diversified its relations with major regional and extra-regional powers such as, but not limited to, Japan, India and Russia in different issue areas (military, economic and ideational). In parallel, the NLD, or Daw Suu in particular, considered China to be an indispensable partner due to its geopolitical and strategic importance. Therefore, it pursued benefits from China that aligned with the government’s strategic priorities while properly assessing and mitigating risks from bilateral relations, for example, in its reduction of investment size in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects. While two concepts are analytically distinct, collectively they fulfil a task of offering a more nuanced and contextually grounded picture of Myanmar’s external engagement, demonstrating how the NLD government diversified its external relations to reduce its overreliance on China while simultaneously engaging with it in a prudent manner.