A matter of timing: sagebrush steppe restoration seeding outcomes altered by species responses to warmer spring temperatures and interannual weather variation

Abstract Introduction Restoration outcomes in cold desert ecosystems like sagebrush steppe are affected by weather variability, particularly during the spring, a critical time period for seedling establishment. Seedling emergence phenology is also highly variable among species in these ecosystems. Seed‐based restoration outcomes are likely affected by the emergence timing of species in seed mixes relative to periods of favorable soil microclimate in the spring. Objectives This study evaluated the effects of higher spring temperatures in different periods, and species differences in seedling emergence and survival, on restoration outcomes. We also tested the indirect effects of warming treatments on outcomes via abundance of cheatgrass, a competitive, widespread invasive annual sensitive to weather variability. Methods We used open‐sided chambers to implement early‐ or late‐spring warming on plots seeded with a diverse set of species that differed in timing of emergence, across multiple years and variable weather conditions in sagebrush steppe, Oregon, U.S.A. Results Spring warming treatment effects varied with yearly weather and species emergence timing relative to the rest of the seeded species. Later‐emergence timing was associated with lower emergence rates, particularly with late spring warming, and lower survival with early spring warming, but higher survival without warming or with late spring warming. Seed mix scenarios tuned to warming treatment and yearly weather outperformed early‐ or late‐emergence timing and even proportion mixes. Early spring warming increased invasive annual grass abundance, which was associated with lower survival of seeded species. Conclusions Species differences and yearly precipitation affected restoration outcomes under warmer spring temperatures.