Exploring Urban Vitality: Spatiotemporal Patterns and Influencing Mechanisms via Multi-Source Data and Explainable Machine Learning

Urban vitality is a crucial indicator of a city’s sustainable development and the quality of life of its residents. Investigating the spatiotemporal patterns and influencing mechanisms of urban vitality is essential for optimizing the built-environment and improving governance. Using the central urban area of Guiyang, China, as a case study, this research integrates multi-source urban sensing data to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of urban vitality and their driving factors. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) and machine learning combined with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) are applied to capture spatial heterogeneity, nonlinear relationships, and threshold effects among influencing variables. Results show that urban vitality exhibits a Y-shaped, single-core, multi-center, and clustered spatial configuration, with slightly higher intensity on weekdays and similar diurnal rhythms across weekdays and weekends. The effects of influencing factors display strong spatial non-stationarity, characterized by a concentric gradient radiating outward from the historic Laocheng core. Building density (BD), residential point density (RED), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and road density (RD) emerge as the dominant contributors to urban vitality, while topographic conditions play a relatively minor role. The relationships between key landscape and built-environment variables and urban vitality are highly nonlinear, with distinct threshold effects. By integrating spatial econometric modeling and explainable machine learning, this study advances methodological approaches for urban vitality research and provides practical insights for landscape-oriented urban planning and human-centered spatial design.