Interpretable Optimized Support Vector Machines for Predicting the Coal Gross Calorific Value Based on Ultimate Analysis for Energy Systems

In energy production systems, the higher heating value (HHV), also known as the gross calorific value, is a key parameter for identifying the primary energy source. In this study, a novel artificial intelligence model was developed using support vector machines (SVM) combined with the Differential Evolution (DE) optimizer to predict coal gross calorific value (the dependent variable). The model incorporated the elements from coal ultimate analysis—hydrogen (H), carbon (C), oxygen (O), sulfur (S), and nitrogen (N)—as input variables. For comparison, the experimental data were also fitted to previously reported empirical correlations, as well as Ridge, Lasso, and Elastic-Net regressions. The SVM-based model was first used to assess the influence of all independent variables on coal HHV and was subsequently found to be the most accurate predictor of coal gross calorific value. Specifically, the SVM regression (SVR) achieved a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.9861 and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.9575 for coal HHV prediction based on the test samples. The DE/SVM approach demonstrated strong performance, as evidenced by the close agreement between observed and predicted values. Finally, a summary of the results from these analyses is presented.