Mitigation of Time Overruns in Construction Projects in Afghanistan by Applying Risk Management

Construction industry in Afghanistan is crucial for economic and social advancement, particularly after years of instability. However, the construction industry has been already confronting huge time overruns, affecting all stakeholders. This research aims to identify the various risks associated with time overruns in construction projects within Afghanistan and to explore effective risk management strategies to mitigate these challenges. To address time overruns, this study employed Monte Carlo simulations using RiskPert to assess time overruns by combining expert judgment with historical data. This study assesses construction project historical data from 2002 to 2023, emphasizing the political and economic circumstances of that period using a literature review and an examination of 74 construction project reports, in addition to semi-structured interviews with industry experts to determine schedule-related risks and their frequent causes. This research found 29 distinct risk indicators classified into eight categories, facilitating a methodical integration of risks into the simulation model. The Monte Carlo Simulations conducted with @RISK software (version 8.0, Palisade Corporation, New York, NY, USA) assessed the influence of these risks on project performance over 10,000 iterations, demonstrating a robust association with actual project results and a standard deviation of ±15% in durations. Time overruns in projects are linked to socio-political, organizational, and financial risks. The findings emphasize the significance of these factors on project outcomes and recommend strategies for their mitigation to improve decision-making and ensure project management success.