Investigating Unsafe Pedestrian Behavior at Urban Road Midblock Crossings Using Machine Learning: Lessons from Alexandria, Egypt

Examining pedestrian crossing violations at high-risk road midblock crossings has become essential, particularly in high-speed corridors, as a result of accidents at crossings resulting in fatalities. Hence, this article investigates such behavior in Alexandria, Egypt, as a credible case study in a developing country. According to our research methodology, a comprehensive dataset of over 2400 field-observed video recordings was used for real-life data collection. Machine learning (ML) models, such as CatBoost and gradient boosting (GB), were employed to predict crossing decisions. The models showed that risky behavior is strongly influenced by waiting time, crossing time, and the number of crossing attempts. The highest predictive performance was achieved by CatBoost and gradient boosting, indicating strong interpersonal influence within small groups engaging in unsafe road-crossing behavior. In the same context, the Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) values for these variables were 3, 2, and 0.60, respectively. Subsequently, based on SHAP sensitivity analysis, the results show that the total time (s) and age group (40–60 Y) had a significant negative influence on model prediction converging to class 0 (e.g., crossing illegally). The results also showed that shorter exposure times increase the likelihood of crossing illegally. This research work is among the few studies that employ a behavior-based approach to understanding pedestrian behavior at midblock crossings. This study offers actionable insights and valuable information for urban designers and transportation planners when considering the design of midblock crossings.