Social conservatism and changing party preferences among immigrants in Norway

The voting patterns of immigrants in Western European countries have for decades tilted towards centre-left parties – a phenomenon referred to as an ‘iron rule’. Evidence from recent elections is suggestive of a breakup of this pattern. Are migrant voters shifting towards parties on the right, and if so, why? We study this question using quality panel survey data from the Norwegian local elections of 2019 and 2023 with uniquely large samples of immigrants, second-generation Norwegians, as well as natives. The 2023 election was a big win for the right. We test whether shifting voter allegiances of voters with immigrant or second-generation backgrounds can be explained by social conservatism and religiosity. Results indicate that social conservatism among religiously active voters is not the main cause of this shift. Rather, pocketbook issues such as taxes are the main driver. The voting patterns of migrants seem to be aligning more with those of native voters, compared to what we have seen in previous studies.