Multivariate Techno-Economic Feasibility of Refuse-Derived Fuel Production in Ghana Using Response Surface Methodology: Insights from a Pilot-Scale System

Municipal solid waste challenges (MSW) and concerns about fossil fuel dependence motivate efforts to recover energy from waste, including refuse-derived fuel (RDF). Techno-economic assessment (TEA) evaluates the feasibility of systems by quantifying investment performance. However, most RDF-TEA studies typically rely on isolated sensitivity analyses. That provides limited insight into interaction effects in emerging markets. This study maps the multivariable feasibility of RDF production from MSW in Ghana under realistic economic conditions. Using a pilot-calibrated case study, the assessment integrates discounted cash flow analysis with response surface methodology–design of experiment (RSM-DoE). A central composite design evaluates interaction effects among operational and economic variables for a system capacity of 2875 tonnes RDF/year. The results indicate economic viability with a net present value (NPV) of USD 892,556.44, a payback period (PBP) of 6.61 years and a levelised production cost (LPC) of USD 18.96/tonne. The RSM models show high explanatory power (R2, R2adj, R2pred > 90%). Sensitivity results demonstrate that support mechanisms can significantly reduce LPC and PBP while preserving investment viability. The study quantifies the feasibility thresholds and the support instruments within the RDF design levers. It further provides a transferable framework for assessing deployment and upscaling in emerging markets. The findings highlight the need for structured pricing mechanisms and regulatory support for the long-term sustainability of RDF as an AF.