ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ON VAT PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

This study examined the implication of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) disruption on the effect of Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue on economic development in Nigeria. Specifically, the study determined the effect of VAT revenue on human development index of Nigeria and whether Covid-19 disruption has a significant implication on the relationship between VAT revenue and human development index of Nigeria. The study employed ex-post facto research design and secondary data were gleaned from the Central Bank of Nigerian (CBN) statistical bulletin as well as tax report of Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) from the year 2011 to 2022. The inferential statistical analysis for this study involved the analysis of the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression which was employed to test the first hypothesis. Also, the Chow breakpoint test was employed to find out whether there is a structural break in the time series dataset as a result of Covid-19 disruption in 2020. The study found that: VAT revenue has a significant positive effect on the human development index of Nigeria (p-value = 0.0392); Covid-19 has a significant implication on the relationship between VAT revenue and the human development index of Nigeria, indicating a structural change in this relationship around the year 2020 (p-value = 0.0161). In conclusion, Covid-19 disruption undermined the effectiveness of VAT revenue in driving human development outcomes. The study recommends that policymakers and stakeholders should adopt a holistic approach to economic recovery and development by diversifying revenue sources, implementing targeted social protection measures and fostering innovation and resilience in response to emerging challenges.