Impact of COVID-19 on Poverty and Inequality in India: An Empirical Analysis

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a highly infectious viral disease that emerged in December 2019 and rapidly evolved into a global pandemic. The disease spreads primarily through respiratory droplets released when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or exhales, enabling rapid person-to-person transmission. While most infected individuals experience mild to moderate respiratory illness and recover without hospitalization, vulnerable populations—particularly the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory illness, and cancer—face a significantly higher risk of severe complications and mortality. The incubation and recovery period generally extends up to fourteen days. On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organisation officially declared COVID-19 a global pandemic, urging nations to intensify measures to detect, treat, and contain the virus. In India, the pandemic triggered unprecedented public health and economic interventions. The Government of India issued travel advisories, imposed quarantine measures, and enforced nationwide social distancing through initiatives such as the Janata Curfew on 22 March 2020, followed by a 21-day nationwide lockdown from 25 March 2020. While these measures were crucial for containing the spread of the virus, they had severe economic consequences, particularly for informal sector workers. An estimated 400 million workers faced heightened risks of unemployment and poverty. The large-scale return of migrant workers to rural areas further intensified pressure on rural livelihoods. In response, employment generation schemes such as MGNREGA gained renewed importance, and the government launched the Garib Kalyan Rozgar Abhiyan (GKRA) in June 2020 to provide short-term employment to returning migrants across 116 districts. The study underscores the urgent need to strengthen rural and urban employment guarantee programmes, expand social protection, and enhance cash transfers to mitigate the long-term poverty and employment impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in India.