Dynamic Carbon Emissions Accounting and Uncertainty Analysis for Industrial Parks

Under the “dual carbon” strategy and green energy transition, traditional static accounting models have coarse temporal granularity. These models cannot meet the needs of fine-grained management and dynamic control for industrial parks. Therefore, it is urgent to develop high-resolution dynamic accounting systems and analyze model uncertainty. This study first defines the carbon source structure and establishes the accounting boundary for industrial parks. Second, it proposes dynamic accounting methods for both direct and indirect carbon emissions. Third, the study develops an uncertainty analysis model that considers parameter variability and error propagation. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are validated through a case study of a typical industrial park in Sichuan Province, China. The results indicate that the overall uncertainty of carbon emissions in the park is 28.9%, with electricity consumption identified as the primary driver of uncertainty (Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.986). The proposed framework effectively captures real-time emission fluctuations, providing a scientific basis for fine-grained carbon management.