Towards an orderly and just exit from fossil fuels

Abstract The international community faces a conundrum. Without more ambitious action to curtail fossil fuel production, climate goals are impossible to realize. To date, an emerging array of minilateral international governance initiatives has promoted cooperation to reduce support to fossil fuels, through export finance and subsidies and through voluntary commitments to forgo fossil fuel reserves. However, a just transition away from fossil fuels will require more multilateral responses to address challenges such as uneven capacity to diversify economies, differential obligations to move away from fossil fuels based on historical patterns of consumption and the financial constraints which inhibit many states from reducing their fossil fuel dependence. Such a move will be fiercely resisted by fossil fuel-dependent powers. This article explores the tensions between the need for an orderly and just transition but one that is simultaneously able to disrupt incumbent forms of power currently resisting measures to cut the supply of fossil fuels, before assessing potential pathways forward. A growing number of states now recognize the need for global oversight and regulation of fossil fuel production, and they are starting to articulate what form a response might take. This article takes stock of such efforts and explores future political and institutional pathways towards a more orderly and just exit from fossil fuels. It argues that, while minilateral ‘club’ responses create important momentum, ultimately a multilateral agreement will be necessary to address the competing goals, diverse interests and different dimensions of a just transition.