Detecting the Impacts of Climate and Hydrological Changes on the Lower Mekong River Based on Water Quality Variables: A Case Study of An Giang, Vietnam

This study evaluates the spatiotemporal variations in surface water quality in An Giang province, a key upstream region of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD), under the influence of hydrological alterations and climate change impacts. Water quality data from 2010 to 2023 were collected from 10 monitoring stations along the Tien and Hau Rivers, focusing on key parameters including pH, temperature, Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Total Suspended Solids (TSS), Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), Ammonium (N-NH4+), Nitrate (NO3−), orthophosphate (P-PO43−), and Coliforms. The Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were employed to detect long-term trends and quantify the magnitude of changes. The findings indicated that the Hau River exhibits significant organic pollution, evidenced by elevated levels of BOD and COD, alongside diminished levels of DO. The Tien River exhibits elevated concentrations of NH4+ and total suspended solids (TSS). The MK test indicated that BOD, COD, and NH4+ levels were increasing at most locations in a statistically significant manner. This indicates that the water quality deteriorated over time. The study revealed that the majority of pollutants exhibited statistically significant increasing trends (p ≤ 0.05). The Tien River’s COD is increasing by 1.6 mg/L annually, whereas the Hau River’s COD is escalating by 1.7 mg/L per year. The biochemical oxygen demand on both rivers is increasing by 0.5 mg/L each year. The diminishing quantities of dissolved oxygen indicated a decline in water quality. Pollutant concentrations demonstrated significant positive associations with maximum temperature (r = 0.47–0.64) and hours of sunshine (r ≈ 0.50–0.64). A significant negative correlation with river discharge was observed, particularly during the dry season (r = −0.79 to −0.88), when diminished flows resulted in elevated pollution concentrations. The findings offer measurable evidence that increasing temperatures and decreasing river flows significantly affect water quality, underscoring the necessity of adapting water resource management in the Mekong Delta.