Analyzing individuals willingness to delay retirement in China’s Initial Policy Stage : in the view of the multiple streams framework

China's delayed retirement policy, after nearly 20 years of deliberation, has finally been officially introduced and implementation started in January 2025. This study examines the formulation process of the policy through the Multiple Streams Framework (MSF), emphasizing the critical role of individuals’ willingness during the initial implementation phase. By reviewing domestic and international studies on the application of the MSF, the research identifies that the MSF has been primarily applied to agenda-setting and policy formulation but limited in the initial implementation stage. Through studying the western extension of the MSF, this study argues that the MSF can provide a robust theoretical framework for studying individuals’ willingness to delay retirement. While existing research in China has explored various factors influencing retirement intentions, the impact of China’s two-child policy has received relatively little attention as it is relatively new. This study addresses this gap by integrating the two-child policy as a key variable in the analysis of public willingness to delay retirement. The main objective of this study is to identify significant factors affecting individuals’ willingness to delay retirement during the initial phase of implementing a voluntary flexible delayed retirement policy. To address this research objective, this paper also explores the contextual background of the formulation of the delayed retirement policy and assesses how effectively the problem and policy streams, within the MSF framework, can interpret individuals’ willingness during its implementation at the individual level. Based on MSF, the factors shaping public willingness are categorized into problem and policy streams and factors in each stream are divided into Micro, Meso and Macro levels based on the Bronfenbrenner's Ecological Systems Theory (“EST”). This study contributes to existing literature in four significant ways. Firstly, it expands the scope of the MSF framework by demonstrating its applicability beyond the policy agenda-setting and formulations stages to analyze implementation dynamics. Secondly, it sheds light on the relatively underexplored connection between retirement intentions and China’s two-child policy, offering fresh insights into how family-related factors influence workforce decisions. Thirdly, it reveals the different willingness of delaying retirement of generational cohorts, different gender group and employees inside the system and outside the system, and their willingness to delay retirement. Finally, given the imminent implementation of the delayed retirement policy, the research provides timely and relevant data analysis that can inform policymakers as they navigate the challenges of implementing the delayed retirement policy. By addressing individuals’ willingness and its influencing factors, this study underscores the importance of enhancing welfare balance, aligning policy implementation with societal preferences and demographic realities, fully reflecting that investigative research is the primary practical principle of the “from the people; to the people". Keywords: Delayed Retirement, Multiple Streams Framework (MSF), Public Willingness, Two-Child Policy, Policy Formulation and Implementation, China, Ecological Systems Theory (EST)