Predicting the invasion of the common wall gecko (Tarentola mauritanica) in the southern cone of South America

The common wall gecko (Tarentola mauritanica) has invaded three regions globally: the Azoresand Madeira archipelagos, the subtropical and temperate regions of North America, and thesouth of South America. The information about the invasion in South America is limited, and records suggest rapid expansion in the continent’s south. In this work, we modeled the gecko’sdistribution in its native range to identify potential invasion sites in the Southern Cone of SouthAmerica, updating its geographic distribution and assessing their potential threat to native SouthAmerican geckos. The most contributive variables in the Species Distribution Model includedprecipitation of the driest quarter, minimum temperature of the coldest month, and temperatureseasonality. The habitat suitable for the expansion of geckos in the Southern Cone covers1,397,558.36 km2, with the highest being in the north-central part of Argentina. The speciesHomonota taragui, Homonota williamsii, and Homonota whitii had the greatest degree of overlapwith the suitable habitat of T. mauritanica, requiring particular caution against future introductions.This underscores the importance of understanding and mitigating the risks associated withthe invasive potential of T. mauritanica in the Southern Cone of South America, specially to theendemic and endangered species, living in rocky areas.