The impact of digital government development on total factor productivity in forestry: evidence from China

Introduction Enhancing the total factor productivity (TFP) of forestry ecosystems is central to shifting the forestry industry toward high-quality development. This study investigates the impact of digital government initiatives on forestry ecosystem TFP to understand how digital governance can drive ecological and economic efficiency. Methods Utilizing panel data from 30 Chinese provinces between 2015 and 2022, this study employs a Dual Machine Learning (DML) model to mitigate endogeneity and estimation bias. This rigorous methodological framework allows for a precise quantitative assessment of the effects and transmission mechanisms of digital government development on forestry ecosystem TFP. Results The empirical results demonstrate three key findings: (1) The expansion of digital government significantly boosts the TFP of forestry ecosystems. (2) Mechanism analysis identifies three primary channels for this improvement: the cultivation of new quality productive forces, the upgrading of forestry industrial structures, and the simplification of operational processes. Furthermore, the broader digital economy acts as a significant positive moderator in this relationship. (3) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the magnitude of these effects varies across regions, contingent upon local economic development levels and forest resource endowments. Discussion Based on these findings, the paper proposes policy recommendations to foster institutional innovation, accelerate digital government construction, and implement region-specific strategies. Globally, this study provides empirical evidence for the synergy between digital governance and ecological sustainability. It offers a replicable model for other nations seeking to leverage digital tools to balance economic growth with environmental conservation, thereby contributing to the advancement of global ecological civilization and sustainable development goals.