Impact of cross-border e-commerce policy on urban green development performance: evidence from prefecture-level cities in China

Cross-border e-commerce significantly fuels economic expansion in cities, particularly impacting the green development performance of export-oriented developing countries. This paper employs a super-SBM model for evaluating the performance of urban green development (UGDP) in 293 Chinese prefecture-level cities within the timeframe of 2011–2021, using panel data. A multi-period Difference-in-Differences (DID) model is used to analyze the impact of the cross-border e-commerce pilot zone (CEPZ) policy on UGDP and its underlying mechanisms. Findings demonstrate a statistically significant positive effect of CEPZ on UGDP, robust across various sensitivity tests. The policy stimulated green innovation and digital transformation to enhance UGDP. This implies that cross-border e-commerce not only boosts economic expansion in pilot cities but also improves their green development by fostering innovation, accelerating transformation, and reducing energy consumption and carbon intensity. In essence, cross-border e-commerce development yields a “double dividend” of economic advancement and carbon emission reduction. This development model offers a novel approach to sustainable urban growth, balancing economic advancement with environmental stewardship and providing new insights for future urban development strategies.