An integrated approach for advancing material criticality assessment in the renewable energy transition: insights from Switzerland and Italy

Abstract Photovoltaic (PV) panels and wind turbines are key renewable energy technologies for carbon neutrality, yet their deployment relies on critical raw materials (CRMs). Existing criticality assessments predominantly emphasize ‘external’ dimensions, encompassing global and regional factors like production volumes, supply concentration, and geopolitical dependencies, while often overlooking country-specific or ‘internal’ dimensions, including national deployment trajectories, material demand growth, and recycling capacity. This study addresses this gap by proposing an integrated, multi-scalar methodology for assessing material criticality in renewable energy technologies that explicitly incorporates both external and internal dimensions. The methodology was tested on Italy and Switzerland. Material flow analysis is combined with an adapted criticality matrix incorporating three adjustment factors: BT deployment gaps, projected material-specific demand growth, and recycling maturity, with a focus on materials related to PV panels and wind turbines. Materials are assigned a criticality score from 0 (lowest) to 6 (highest). Results show that technology deployment drive sharp increases in demand for several materials (e.g. silicon, silver, zinc), with Switzerland exhibiting higher criticality scores than Italy due to steeper projected growth and narrower recovery windows. Comparison with the EU CRMs list reveals alignment for several materials (e.g. rare earth elements), while others (e.g. indium, selenium) emerge as nationally critical despite being overlooked or undifferentiated in regional assessments. These findings underscore the value of national-level material criticality assessments for manufacturing economies and for technology importers. The proposed framework supports policymakers and stakeholders in anticipating material supply bottlenecks and informs strategic planning for supply diversification, recycling, and circularity.