Iceberg Model as a Digital Risk Twin for the Health Monitoring of Complex Engineering Systems

This paper introduces an iceberg-based digital risk twin (DRT) framework for the health monitoring of complex engineering systems. The proposed model transforms multidimensional sensor and contextual data into a structured, interpretable three-dimensional geometry that captures both observable and latent risk components. Each monitored parameter is represented as a vertical geometric sheet whose height encodes a normalized risk level, producing an evolving iceberg structure in which the visible and submerged regions distinguish emergent anomalies from latent degradation. A formal mathematical formulation is developed, defining the mappings from the risk vector to geometric height functions, spatial layout, and surface composition. The resulting parametric representation provides both analytical tractability and intuitive visualization. A case study involving an aircraft fuel system demonstrates the capacity of the DRT to reveal dominant risk drivers, parameter asymmetries, and temporal trends not easily observable in traditional time-series analysis. The model is shown to integrate naturally into AI-enabled health management pipelines, providing an interpretable intermediary layer between raw data streams and advanced diagnostic or predictive algorithms. Owing to its modular structure and domain-agnostic formulation, the DRT approach is applicable beyond aviation, including power grids, rail systems, and industrial equipment monitoring. The results indicate that the iceberg representation offers a promising foundation for enhancing explainability, situational awareness, and decision support in the monitoring of complex engineering systems.