Bayesian modelling of criminal cases as a whole

The Bayesian model is gaining ground in criminal law as a rational method for evaluating evidence. The central question of this article is whether the Bayesian model can provide guidance for the judicial evaluation of evidence. More specifically, it focuses on the use of Bayesian modelling of complete criminal cases. Section 2 explicates the model, discussing an example of how experts from the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI) apply it in their reports. Section 3 addresses the question of whether non-forensic experts and judges can or even should use the Bayesian model as well. The focus of the rest of this article is on Bayesian modelling of criminal cases as a whole. In section 4, I discuss Dutch case law on the use of such integral modelling. The Netherlands appears to be internationally unique in that this question has been addressed in case law. Since the Bayesian model is gaining ground in criminal law worldwide, a discussion of Dutch case law can be relevant for legal scholars and legal philosophers from other, in particular from comparable continental legal systems. Section 5 offers a further legal-philosophical and epistemological reflection on the nature and functions of Bayesian modelling of criminal cases as a whole. The contribution concludes with recommendations for further research. Part of this further research is being carried out within the research project Preventing Miscarriages of Justice.